The posting of my past and current
Trading Log is for my convenience, ONLY!
Please read and understand the
following disclosures to the market
Comments that are provided:
SITE
DISCLOSURE
Ozark
Group, Inc, Market Bias Investors, LLC, Dr. Dale Engel, PhD or dukestrading.com
is not a registered Investment Adviser or a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that “My Trading Log”
is issued solely for my personal use and informational purposes and is not
to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to
buy. The opinions and analyses included
herein are based from sources believed to be reliable and written in good
faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made as to
their accuracy, completeness or correctness.
Readers are urged
to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any
investment!
Past performance may not be indicative of
future results. Therefore, no one should assume that the future performance of
any specific investment, investment strategy or product made reference to
directly or indirectly by dukestrading.com, or indirectly via a link to an
affiliated and/or unaffiliated third party site, will be profitable or equal
historical or anticipated performance level(s). Different types of investments
involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any
specific investment or investment strategy will be suitable and/or profitable.
August 2007 Results and Comments.
September 2007 Results and Comments.
October 2007 Results and Comments.
November 2007 Results and Comments.
December 2007 Results and Comments.
January 2008 Results and Comments.
February 2008 Results and Comments.
March 2008 Results and Comments.
April 2008 Results and Comments.
May 2008 Results and Comments.
June 2008 Results and Comments.
July 2008 Results and Conmments.
August 2008 Results and Comments.
September 2008 Results and Comments.
October 2008 Results and Comments.
November 2008 Results and Comments.
December 2008 Results and Comments.
Listen to the Market – a posting by RealMoney.com that explains
what I have always done!
January 2009 Results and Comments.
February 2009 Results and Comments.
March 2009 Results and Comments.
April 2009 Results and Comments.
May 2009 Results and Comments.
I reference the Trade Bias Rules many times, without getting into
much detail. These rules, “Investing
Using Market Bias” can be found at my main web page! When I reference these in my trading log,
look at the various rules to understand exactly what I am referring to. “My Trading Log” for 2008 and 2007 is
available, above! The monthly results
are also posted above, including the trading results for 2008! All of the trading rules for entry and exit
are contained and explained at “Investing Using Market Bias”! Please view and understand this as this is
what makes “My Trading Method” produce exception profits! Everything I do is VERY TRANSPERENT and I’ll
explain and describe everything in detail!
The first line or two is what the results is from that days trading
and the last line is the position for the next day. This is always done the night before the open
of trading the next day and is easy to see what I’m going to do long before I
do it and makes Market Bias investing very accountable! To make things easy, I show the profit or
loss as cents per share. A trading unit
is $50,000, so 6,000 shares of the Q’s can be traded. A 30¢ per share profit would equate to a
gross profit of $1,800or a 3.6% profit! PLEASE NOTE THAT BECAUSE THE SHARE PRICE HAS
INCREASED ON 5/5/09, THE NUMBER OF SHARES TRADED WILL BE REDUCED TO 5,400
SHARES PER $50,000 TRADING UNIT!
6/16/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative, but and
there is a contra BUY signal (#N4)!
Considerable research has shown that it is the BEST to BUY the OPEN.
6/15/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative, but and there is a contra BUY signal (#N4)! Considerable research has shown that it is
the BEST to BUY the OPEN.
6/12/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 27¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#2) so BUY the Open.
6/11/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 23¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive, but and there is a contra SELL signal (#4)! Considerable research has shown that it is
the BEST to SELL the OPEN, but this decision is far from the most likely future
market direction.
6/10/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. This month so far is not anywhere
what is normal! There are too many
losses, while very controlled, but I have no control of the market
direction. Yesterday’s BUY signal has a
very high success, but this was not the case today. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open.
6/9/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open.
6/8/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 30¢ per share
loss. For Tuesday, the Trade Bias is
Negative (N4), so SELL the Open.
6/5/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative,
but and there is a contra BUY signal (#P6)!
Considerable research has shown that it is the BEST to BUY the OPEN.
6/4/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative, but and there is a contra BUY signal (#N6)! Considerable research has shown that it is
the BEST to BUY the OPEN, but if the Q’s gap open up over 60¢, a SELL is the
best option .
6/3/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 9¢ per share profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so
Sell the Open.
6/2/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive, but and there is a contra SELL signal (#4)! Considerable research has shown that it is
the BEST to SELL the OPEN, but this decision is far from the most likely future
market direction.
6/1/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive, but and there is a contra SELL signal (#4)! Considerable research has shown that it is
the BEST to SELL the OPEN, but this decision is far from the most likely future
market direction.
5/29/09
Another
month is over and the results and comments for the month of May 2009 are posted
above. I entered LONG on the Open and
the trailing stop captured 8¢ per share profit.
For Monday, June 1st, the Trade Bias is Negative (N1), so
SELL the Open.
5/28/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive, but and there is a contra SELL signal (#4)! Considerable research has shown that it is
the BEST to BUY the OPEN, but review P5 guideline/rule.
5/27/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so BUY the Open.
5/26/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 1.22¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#5) so Sell the Open.
5/22/09
I entered
SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 26¢ per share profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative Sell and
once again there is a contra BUY signal (N#6)!
Considerable research has shown that it is the BEST to BUY the OPEN, nut
read N6 before the market opens!
5/21/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
SELL the Open.
5/20/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 31¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#2) so BUY the Open.
5/19/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 26¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#2) so BUY the Open.
5/18/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. It was a volatile market after the open and
turned higher after I was stopped out.
This happens as risk MUST ALWAYS BE CONTROLLED! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open.
5/15/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 33¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so BUY the Open on Monday.
5/14/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. It was a volatile market after the open and
turned higher after I was stopped out.
This happens as risk MUST ALWAYS BE CONTROLLED! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#2) so
BUY the Open.
5/13/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 42¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative Sell and there is a contra BUY signal (#6)! Considerable research has shown that it is
the BEST to BUY the OPEN.
5/12/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#2), because the majority of the Market Bias Indicators are Negative
so SELL the Open.
5/11/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. It was a volatile market after the open and
turned higher after I was stopped out.
This happens as risk MUST ALWAYS BE CONTROLLED! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open.
5/8/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 7¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so BUY the Open.
5/7/09
I entered
LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative Sell and
once again there is a contra BUY signal (#6)!
Considerable research has shown that it is the BEST to BUY the OPEN.
5/6/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 32¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative Sell and there is a contra BUY signal (#6)! Considerable research has shown that it is
the BEST to BUY the OPEN.
5/5/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#4) so SELL the Open.
5/4/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. I made a mistake (very unusual) Friday night
and today should have been a buy, which had a gain of 40¢ per share. For the record, I’m leaving it show by the
original call! Tonight, there is a
contra BUY signal (P6), so BUY the OPEN.
5/1/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share loss. There was a time in the day that this would
have been profitable, but risk is MORE important and a small loss was
accepted! Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#1) so Sell the Open. There is
a contra buy signal, but the market is very overbought and at some point the
market will head lower!
4/30///09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. The April results are posted
above. There was a monthly gain of
20.82%! Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so BUY the Open.
4/29/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Mostly negative news and the
market was up… GO FIGURE! Tonight the
Trade Bias is Positive, but the Mortgage Index is 0, so SELL the open tomorrow!
4/28/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 24¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#1) so Sell the Open.
4/27/09
The
Q’s opened lower so I entered LONG shortly after the open and the trailing stop
captured 54¢ per share profit. Tonight
there is an Alt. BUY signal. This signal
is correct about half of the time, but has produced a good positive gain over
time. I have looked at about ever
possible way to trade this set-up and conclude that a BUY is the best. It is only a 50/50 call, so do not get in
love with the position! BUY the
open!
4/24/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 33¢ per share
profit. Tonight there is a Alt. BUY
signal and a contra SELL signal. My research
has shown that the best way to enter the market is: BUY if the market opens
lower and SELL if the market opens higher!
So on Monday this is what will be used to enter the market!
4/23/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. The recover in HOUSING was set on
its ear today, with lower sales. Many of
my long-term indicators have been calling for a short bias for several days. Today’s housing report could be the start of
this decline sometime in the near future, but there is strong upside momentum
in the current market. It could change
at any time! Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so BUY the Open.
4/22/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 65¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#4) so BUY the Open.
4/21/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 23¢ per share
profit. Tonight, there is a mixed
signal. The Trade Bias is a SELL and
contra signal is a BUY. Enter LONG, but
see Negative Rule #6 for exceptions.
4/20/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 30¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#6), which is a contra signal so BUY the Open.
4/17/0999
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. We have had six weeks of choppy gains and the
market is very overbought! That doesn’t
mean it can’t get more overbought! My
model is to anticipate the ups and downs of the market and it was far from
successful this week. My longer term
trading method has been very successful during this time! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open.
4/16/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 30¢ per share
loss. Sadly, the market traded much
higher after the early sell off, but when the market does not trade the
direction of the indicators and meets my money management guidelines for loss
protection, it is time to watch. This is
going to happen from time to time and money management to prevent huge losses
will always be used! Tonight, the Trade
Bias is Negative (#2) so Sell the Open.
4/15/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 15¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#6) so BUY the Open.
4/14/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. Politicians open their mouth and one more
time the market crashes! This is getting
very OLD! Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#1) so Sell the Open.
4/13/09
I entered
SHORT on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open.
4/9/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 29¢ per share
profit. The markets are closed for Good
Friday tomorrow. Tonight, the Trade Bias
is Negative (#5) and is a contra signal so SELL the Open on Monday.
4/8/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#4) so
BUY the Open.
4/7/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 30¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#5) so BUY the Open.
4/6/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#2) so BUY the Open.
4/03/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. Tonight there is a BUY and a contra SELL
signal. Buy is usually best, but years
of research have shown that if the Q’s open lower – BUY, but higher – SELL!
4/02/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 69¢ per share
profit. Another very good day! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open.
4/01/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 49¢ per share
profit. This was a very good start to a
new month and quarter. A 7% daily gain
is what I want! Tonight, the Trade Bias
is Positive (#3) so BUY the Open.
3/31/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 12¢ per share
profit. The March results are posted
above. It was a net gain of 9.8%. I usually do much better, but March was far
from normal! Tonight, the Trade Bias is
a contra Negative (#3) so BUY the Open.
3/30/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. There was some negative news over
the weekend and the market opened lower, which I love when I want to be
long. The government causing a CEO to
resign is “concerning at best” and is the “worst governmental intervention”
EVER! What will they think of next? We are in a period of BIG GOVERNMENT and this
is not going to end soon or VERY GOOD!
This morning was the first time in many months that administration
finally had a plan and was saying NO MORE!
I thought that this was overall very positive, but the market didn’t
like it one bit. The March rally on
mostly bad news was very hard to logically understand and what I thought was
mostly positive news today, caused the market to tank. I guess I think different from the crowd and
why stops are always used to protect trading equity. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#3) so
BUY the Open.
3/27/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. On Tuesday night the monthly results for
March will be posted. There are two trading
days left in the month and the monthly return, so far, is over 10%. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open.
3/26/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. When a market does not perform as I expect,
the only safe place to be is on the sidelines!
There were good profits later in the day, but controlling risk is the
real secret to long term profitability! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative
(#2) so Sell the Open.
3/25/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#2) so Buy the Open.
3/24/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 15¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#5) so Sell the Open tomorrow.
3/23/09
I entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 9¢ per
share profit. There was a 500 point
rally after this, but it was done on low volume, which is not good! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#5) so
Sell the Open tomorrow.
3/20/09
I entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢
per share loss. My DIA and SPY positions
were very profitable, but the Q’s position was stopped out early with a small
loss. Over the course of the day there
were good profits in the Q’s, but risk is managed and if the market does not
perform as expected; it is best to watch!
Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so Sell the Open on Monday.
3/19/09
I entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 25¢ per
share profit. While a 25¢ per share
profit might not seem like much, but it is a daily gain of 3%. A CD pays 3% a year and this was ONE
DAY! It is probably much less risk as
the bank may be gone by the end of the week!
Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#5) so Sell the Open.
3/18/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. When a market does not perform as I expect,
the only safe place to be is on the sidelines!
Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#5) so Sell the Open.
3/17/09
I
woke up at 3 AM this morning and reviewed my position signal. The set-up from yesterday is always a
BUY. I looked at the wrong line and last
nights call was in error! I will BUY the
Open! It appears that my upload to my
website failed before the market opened.
I entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 44¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#1) so Sell the Open.
3/16/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at a small 20¢ per share
loss. My SPY and DIA positions were
profitable, so I do not view this as anything major. Usually all of these ETF’s trade in the same
direction, but today the Q’s didn’t.
Today the 50-day moving average was touched, but was not broken. If this
rally is REAL, it will be broken, but there is nothing that says it will. Tonight, I’m calling the Trade Bias
NEGATIVE! This is a very mixed signal,
but a downward reaction to this rally is needed. Considering this, SELL the OPEN!
3/13/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. It was a pretty good week with a 11% positive
weekly gain. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#6) so Buy the Open.
3/12/09
The
Q’s opened lower so I entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured
17¢ per share profit. After three days
of very good returns, the Trade Bias is once again Positive tonight. My gut says something else, but I have
learned long ago that it is not smart to trade against the Market Bias
Indicators. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so Buy the Open.
3/11/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 18¢ per share
profit. Tonight there are very mixed
signals! If the market opens lower – BUY
the OPEN, but if the market opens higher – SELL the OPEN! Be sure to use stops!
3/10/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 108¢ per share
profit. So far, this was my best trading
day of 2009. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so Buy the Open.
3/9/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 30¢ per share
loss. Right after the open the price
shot up and then fell the rest of the day.
If a market does not act the way I think and meets or exceeds my stop
levels, I’m going to watch from the sidelines.
The position would have been profitable if I would have waited, but
there is NO “could of, should of or would of”!
I focus on RISK and do not think twice when my risk levels are
exceeded! It was a small loss, but my
capital is in place and I look forward to tomorrow to make a profit! This market knowledge is very hard for most
to understand! Tonight, the Trade Bias
is Negative, but it is a #5 position and a contra position is indicated so BUY
the Open.
3/6/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. The cycle continues and it is a very unstable
market. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#1 and #4) so Sell the Open.
3/5/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out at break-even. We are in a cycle of one day rallies and huge
price swings. I like trending markets
and this is a time to keep the “powder dry”.
Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so Buy the Open.
3/4/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so Buy the Open.
3/3/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. After the huge sell off of
yesterday, some type of rebound was expected.
The market is very nervous and there was no early direction. Once the Treasury Secretary started to speak,
the direction was clear. Tonight, the
Trade Bias is Negative (#4) so Sell the Open.
3/2/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 19¢ per share profit
(+2.18% return), before another huge decline.
Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#4) so Buy the Open.
2/27/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 20¢ per share
profit. The February 2009 results are
posted above. It was far from a good
month, but the net gain was still 11.3% for the month, which is far better than
the 2.5% annual return on a CD. Tonight,
the Trade Bias is Negative (#1). Over
the weekend I did some more research on this type of setup as I wasn’t happy
with the results, so BUY the Open on Monday.
This setup is accurate 9 out of 10 times and will be added to Using
Market Bias on Monday.
2/26/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Obama’s budget wasn’t received
very well by Wall Street and makes me ill!
The market reacted accordingly!
Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#5) so Buy the Open.
2/25/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. What unusual markets, down 300
points one day, the next up 250 points and then today down 150 points, up 50
points and close 80 points lower. I have
never seen a market that totally lacks direction and any consistency! This is why stops are used to limit risk and
preserve capital! Tonight, the Trade
Bias is Positive (#1) so Buy the Open.
2/24/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 30¢ per share
loss. In 35 years of trading, I have
never seen more one day trends than have occurred in February. Even if I’m wrong the last three trading days
of the month, it is still going to be a respectful positive monthly gain! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
Buy the Open.
2/23/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Just 6 days ago another 787
Billion spending package was signed into law.
The very next day another 75 billion for housing was proposed and there
is considerable talk of another 500 billion spending package. The politician’s are spending money like
water and now he wants to cut the deficit in half over the next several
years. This only means one thing for
sure…TAX, TAX and TAX! The markets do
not like this type of thing one bit! A
little consistency would be welcomed by the market! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so
Sell the Open. I hope I’m wrong, but it
is looking like there is much more downside ahead.
2/20/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. My DIA and SPY positions were very
profitable today, so this doesn’t mean much.
Currently the Nasdaq-100 is not following the current general
market! I lost money this week in my Q
positions, but for the month, so far, have a 20.2% gain. This is just one holiday shortened trading
week and means very little to the big picture!
Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so Buy the Open on Monday.
2/19/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#2) so Sell the Open.
2/18/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 34¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive (#4) so Buy the Open.
2/17/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Usually when the market opens
lower and there is a BUY signal, it is usually a profitable day, but wasn’t
today! The 50-day moving average was
broken to the downside, which is negative.
Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so Sell the Open.
2/13/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 14¢ per share
profit. Just a SO-SO week! For the week the gain was a modest net of
3.34%. For the month of February, which
is half over, the gain is a respectful 23.72%!
Monday is President’s Day and the markets are closed. On Tuesday, the Trade Bias is Positive (#1)
so BUY the Open!
2/12/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight the Trade Bias is Positive
(#1) so BUY the Open! This is short and
late as I’m traveling over the weekend.
2/11/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 28¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative (#1) so Sell the Open. The
market is getting very over sold!
2/10/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 18¢ per share
profit. Good thing that trailing stops
are ALWAYS used as the market started lower and crashed once the politicians
got on TV! What a terrible day for the
markets, but it was just a normal trading day for me! I trade short-term and know that I will
profit regardless of the direction, but I think long-term trading has extreme
downside risk! If you buy and hold, BE
EXTREMELY CAREFULL, as this is not looking good to me! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so Sell
the Open.
2/9/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open, but after three failed attempts to go lower, exited
the market a break even. This is not a
written rule, but whenever the market has made several attempts and fails, it
is wise to exit without and damage!
Tonight the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so BUY the Open!
2/6/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open with a contra LONG signal and was stopped out with a
small 20¢ per share loss. Let’s see, job
losses were higher than expected and lots of negative news, but the market
rallied. Go Figure! Days like this are the reason that the good
management tools of Market Bias Investing are used! February is starting out to be an exceptional
month. This week saw a 20.38% net
positive return and there were even two days of small losses. The main reason for this profitable gain is that
profits are allowed to run, with a trailing stop, and losses are cut
quickly! This is fundamental to
profitable trading and is the cornerstone of Market Bias Trading! Everything that is done is very transparent
and once the basic concept is understood, Market Bias Investing is very easy to
understand! It is simply “letting the
market tell you the most likely direction” and “using good money management” to
accept profits and limit losses! I’ll
show you how everything is done if you just ask! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so
Sell the Open.
2/5/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 117¢ per share profit.
A GREAT DAY! Tonight the Trade Bias is a
CONTRA Positive (#3) so SELL the Open! I
normally do not take a position if the weekly gain is over 10%. It is a gain of 22% so far. Contra signals are very strong, so I’m going
to trade on Friday!
2/4/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 73¢ per share
profit. It was a wild day with the DOW
having a trading range of 233 points.
Today was another good example of the strengths of Market Bias
Investing. The market went the direction
of the call and the trailing stop captured good profits before it
reversed! Tonight the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so BUY the Open!
2/3/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 24¢ per share
profit. A half hour into trading, the
Q’s picked up strength and the trailing stop captured a profit. Tonight the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open!
2/2/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. The DOW was down, but the NASDAQ
was higher. The Q’s track the NASDAQ, so
it traded higher! This happens sometimes
and I had to accept a small loss! Tonight,
the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so Sell the Open. The difference is -1576 which is very
extreme, but the Trade Bias is Negative and I will go with the long term odds.
1/30/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 46¢ per share
profit. January is over and there was a
gain of 22% for the month. The summary
for January 2009 is posted above.
Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so Sell the Open.
1/29/09
Markets
are fluid and change slightly over time.
There is never a BIG change, but small adjustments must be made to
reflect these minor changes (please see the post on 1/28/09 for more on
this). I feel that if a trading “METHOD”
is to be successful it must adjust to these minor changes! Most “methods” or “systems” are cast in stone
and will always fail over time. I make
sure that this will never happen and everything will always reflect the current
market conditions! The updated rules are
available at “Investing Using Market Bias”!
These are basically very minor changes!
All “postings” and “the results” reflect the rules that were in place at
the time! Any change is to enhance
trading and NEVER affects any past decisions or returns! The research has proven that an adjustment
was needed! These rules will be used from
this point on! I entered LONG on the
Open and the trailing stop captured 40¢ per share profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so
Sell the Open.
1/28/09
Today
the Q’s gapped higher on the open by 1.7%, so I didn’t take a position. This has happened too many times since the
first of the year. In the past I use a
50¢ gap to sit the day out. Considering
that this was about a 1% gap move when the price was $50 per share, but when
the price is $30, it is only a 30¢ gap move.
Markets are fluid and tend to change slightly over time and minor
adjustments need to be made. Markets
have even got more volatile, which causes these tighter gaps to be a
problem. Many methods are set in stone
and never change! I adjust what I do,
based upon the research, which is ongoing!
I’m about ¾ done with this project!
I had focused on this in a similar way in the past, was fairly easy to
reconstruct and solved the issue I was concerned with. If the conclusions remain as they are right
now, it would have been a profitable day.
Today will be posted as a “no position”, because that was the position
that was taken. Until the new guidelines
are posted, the 1% gap rule will not be used!
The new guideline (rules) will be posted by the weekend (very minor
changes, but greatly enhances gap trading) and will be used as trading goes
forward, so please review these over the weekend! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so
Sell the Open.
1/27/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight the Trade Bias is Positive
(#1) so BUY the Open! After hours
trading has the Q’s up 1.02%, so watch the open!
1/26/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 50¢ per share
profit. Today is very typical of Market
Bias Trading! The position was
determined Friday night (60 hours before the position), the Q’s opened about
flat (the futures were pointing to a lower open), the Q’s rallied for a little
over an hour and the trailing stop caused an exit about 1¼ hours into trading,
capturing a 50¢ per share profit. This
was a 6% gain for the day! Tonight the
Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so Sell the Open.
1/23/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 26¢ per share
profit. Once again it was a day of wild swings. This week was rather disappointing. I had one profitable day, one loss day, two
with no position and a holiday on Monday.
So far for January, with 5 trading days to go, the monthly gain was
8.68% after commission expenses.
Considering that we have had a couple of weeks of one day trends, this
return is more than I expected! Until we
get back to some type of trend following, the best goal is to be sure capital
is preserved! Tonight the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so BUY the Open!
1/22/09
Once
again, I never chase a market! Today the
Q’s opened 2.2% lower and I wanted to be SHORT, so there was NO POSITION! In all of my many years of trading, I don’t
recall two of these huge caps in a row or three out of the last four trading
days. In markets where there are large
swings in the price, preserving capital is the number one concern! Tonight the Trade Bias is Positive (#2) so
BUY the Open!
1/21/09
I
never chase a market! Today the Q’s
opened 1.7% higher and I wanted to be LONG, so there was NO POSITION! This is a very strange market and there just
isn’t much follow through to the upside or downside. Yesterday the DOW was down 332 points and
today it is up 279 points! These types
of extreme price movement are very unusual and very hard to understand. This is a 611 point swing in two days and not
much changed! Market Bias Investing is a
trend following investment method and is successful because RISK is always the
central focus. Profits are allowed to
expand, but losses are cut quickly with very little equity damage! In this current market, RISK of loss is
controlled and will be maintained!
Tonight the Trade Bias is Negative (#1) so Sell the Open.
1/20/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. The markets were looking positive
last week, but today stocks took the worst beating of any Inauguration Day in
history! As I stated last week, it is
looking like there is going to be a test of the November lows and it is
especially concerning that the 50-day moving average was broken to the upside,
but did not hold. A test of the lows is
extremely positive, but when the 50-day moving average can not hold is
extremely negative. The DOW lost 1,200
points after his election, but had a 28% recovery from the lows. This might be what is happening now! This market is VERY oversold! Tonight the Trade Bias is Positive (#2) so
BUY the Open on Wednesday!
1/16/09
I
never chase a market! Today the Q’s opened
1.3% higher and I wanted to be LONG, so there was NO POSITION! It wasn’t a very good week, but the gain
after commissions was still 1.3% (for the week). Some like to look at the annual return and
since there are 52 weeks in a year, this should be easy to do. This is still pretty good by industries
standards, but nowhere close to what I like or expect! Monday is the MLK holiday and markets are
closed. Tonight the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so BUY the Open on Tuesday!
1/15/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. This market is very oversold, but
can become even more oversold. All
resistance levels are easily broken and it is sure looking like at least a test
of the November lows is very likely!
Earlier today the DOW was under 8,000, but did bounce back, which is
very positive! This is NOT the time to
be SHORT! Tonight the Trade Bias is
Positive (#1) so BUY the Open!
1/14/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share loss. Tonight the Trade Bias is Positive (#1) so
BUY the Open!
1/13/09
I
entered LONG on the Open and the trailing stop captured 27¢ per share
profit. The market shot up in the first
hour and then fell apart! Today is a
good example why a trailing stop is always used to capture profits and control
risks! Tonight the Trade Bias is
Positive (#4) so BUY the Open!
1/12/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 27¢ per share
profit. I got stopped out 1 hour and 5
minutes into the day at the top of the range during this time. Much more profit could have been earned, but
taking profits and limiting risk is MUCH more important for long term
profitability! This was a good base
hit! What could have been or what might
have happened does not matter! I got
about $1,600 net (on a $50,000 investment) and I’m looking forward to another
day! This is how money is MADE over the
long haul! Taking profits and limiting
any loss is the only way that makes any common sense! For chart traders, the 50-day moving average
and my two other technical indicators were broken to the downside. Chart traders take this very serious, but
this means very little to me! Tonight
the Trade Bias is Positive so BUY the Open!
1/9/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 65¢ per share
profit. Tonight the Trade Bias is
Negative (#2) so Sell the Open.
1/8/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and the trailing stop captured 10¢ per share
profit. We still have very light volume
(about 60% of normal) and continue above the 50-day moving average. If the market was higher and broke the 50-day
moving average on good volume, it would be a positive sign for higher prices,
but low volume is not a good sign for this to happen! Tonight the Trade Bias is Negative (#2) so
Sell the Open.
1/7/09
The
Q’s opened about 1.5% lower and I never chase a market, therefore there was NO
POSITION today! Tonight the Trade Bias
is Negative (#1) so Sell the Open.
1/6/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and was stopped out with a small 20¢ per share
loss. Tonight the Trade Bias is Negative
(#1) so Sell the Open.
1/5/09
I
entered SHORT on the Open and had some early profits, but the trailing stop
caused an exit with 4¢ profit. The
50-day moving average also held and volume was half of normal. Tonight the Trade Bias is Negative (#4) so
Sell the Open.
1/2/09
I
didn’t get Ham Scan working until this evening, so I had to sit today out. The market was up huge today and felt I had
missed a good day. Once I did my work,
it would have been a break even day! The
market was up big time today, but the volume was very low. This is not a positive! The 50-day moving average was finally broken
to the upside today, but this is no indication that the market will continue
higher! Tonight the Trade Bias is
Negative (#4), so SELL the OPEN on Monday!
1/1/09
I
hope you had a pleasant holiday! I
didn’t trade since the 19th, but did keep close track! The following is the results of Market Bias
Trading during this time: 12/22 +.34, 12/23
B/E, 12/24 +.02, 12/26 -.20, 12/29 -.20, 12/30 +.44, 12/31 +.41! During this time there was a 9% net gain,
which is very consistent with the long term results, even though the volume was
very light. These results will not be
included in the results that are posted!
I was planning to trade on Friday, but my Ham Scan program was updated
last night and is not working, so I can not obtain the indicators that I
need. It is updated twice a year and
never works after the update.
Programmers take something that is working fine, make some changes to
make it better, but screw it up! I will
never be able to understand this!
Computers and software make it much easier, but when they do not work,
make it impossible! Learning computers
and software is the best thing that I have done, but is also the WORST! I guess that I will have to sit Friday out
and continue my time off! It should be
fixed so I can get back on schedule by Monday!
12/19/08
I
entered SHORT on the open and was stopped out at break-even (#2). This past week is the worst I have had in
three years. Monday is a Jewish holiday
and Christmas is later in the week. I
always take the week between Christmas and New Years off as these are extremely
light volume trading days. Because there
is a Jewish holiday on Monday and I have had a pretty good year already, I’m
going to take a couple of weeks off.
Please view the above December results and the 2008 Trading and Return
Summary! It was a very good year! The next posting will be on Sunday, January 4th
for trading on Monday the 5th of January. Have a happy and safe holiday!