12/31/07
I
entered short on the open at 51.57 and the 15¢ trailing stop captured a 6¢ per
share profit. See above for the December
monthly results. Tonight the Trade Bias
is S&P 0 Negative, so use these rules for entry and exit.
12/28/07
I
entered Short on the open at 52.05 and the trailing stop was set at 51.80, for
a 25 cent per share profit. For the
holiday shortened week, the annual return was 241%. Tonight, the Trade Bias is 0 and the S&P
0 Rule applies, so use the Trade Bias 0 (zero) rules for entry and exit.
12/27/07
I
entered short at 52.36 and the trailing stop captured 13 cents per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative so use the Negative Bias Rules for entry and exit.
12/26/07
It
was a break-even day on volume that was half of normal. Tonight, the Trade Bias is POSITIVE so use the
Positive Bias Rules for entry and exit.
12/24/07
I
picked up 20 cents today. Tonight the
Trade Bias is 0, the S&P 0 Rule and the market was lower the last hour so I
will be looking to SHORT the open.
12/21/07
The
Q’s gapped open 81¢ higher and I never chase a market, so there was NO Position
today. For the week, two days were
profitable, one that was breakeven and two with no positions. The annual return was 308%. Tonight, the Trade Bias is 0 and the S&P
0 Rule applies, so entry will be Long on Monday. We have seen a huge rally the past couple of
days and trading volume will be light Christmas eve. I will be traveling on Monday, but I do not
need to be near a phone… my orders will be in!
12/20/07
The
Q’s gapped open 79¢ higher and I never chase a market, so there was NO Position
today. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Positive, so entry will be by the Trade Bias Positive Rules.
12/19/07
I
bought the open this morning, but was stopped out about 15 minutes later at break-even. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Positive, so entry
will be by the Trade Bias Positive Rules.
12/18/07
Today
the Q’s gapped higher by over 15¢ and the Trade Bias is Negative, so I sold the
open. My 15¢ trailing stop captured a
34¢ per share profit. Tonight the Trade
Bias is 0 (zero) and the four indicators that determine the trading direction,
for the first time ever, are 50/50.
Since there was a strong close to the upside, I am going to buy the
open, by the entry rules.
12/17/07
I
sold on the open and the trailing stop took got me a 40¢ per share profit. Volume was rather light early in the day, but
pretty good later and I expect this to continue this week. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative, so I
will enter by the Trade Bias Negative Rules!
12/14/07
Today
the Q’s gapped much lower and entry did not occur until the market recovered
and got back to yesterdays close (by the entry rules). I entered short at 51.50 and the trailing
stop caused an exit at 51.30. A 20¢ per
share profit. For the week the annual
rate of return was a respectable 399%!
This was an extremely interesting week and has once again shown the
validity of the Bias Indicators and the trading method! Tonight, the Trade Bias is 0, which means the
Market Bias Indicators do not agree. The
T2118, TRIN, VIX and Mortgage Index are NEGATIVE, so I will sell the open on
Monday!
12/13/07
Today
I went long at 51.33 on the open. The
Q’s rallied, but I used my 15¢ trailing stop and accepted a 15¢ per share
profit very early in the day. Trading
was mostly lower the rest of the day.
Tonight the Trade Bias is NEGATIVE, so I will sell the open, by the
rules!
12/12/07
Today
the Q’s opened 93¢ higher. I wanted to
buy the open, but a gap open this high causes me to PASS! There was not a position today! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative and the
S&P 0 rule is in play. I am going to
BUY the open!
12/11/07
I
entered on the open at 52.61. I don’t
like having a position going into a FOMC report, but the SHORT contra signal
from yesterday’s market was about as strong as I’ve have ever seen. I used a trailing stop and exited at 52.00,
for a 61¢ per share profit. It was a
huge down day! Tonight, the Trade Bias
is Negative and the S&P 0 rule is in play.
I am going to BUY the open!
12/10/07
I
entered on the open at 52.44. There was
little movement in the Q’s all day and exited at breakeven. Tonight, everything is too Positive, so a
contra SHORT position is called for on Tuesday.
12/7/07
I
entered short on the open at 52.29 and the trailing stop caused an exit for an
11¢ per share profit. For the week, the
gain on an annual basis was a respectable 241%.
Tonight, everything is Positive, so a contra SHORT position is called
for on Monday.
12/6/07
I
entered on the open at 51.63 and there was only a 2¢ profit before the market
headed higher. This small profit put the
stop at 20¢ and I was stopped out for a 20¢ per share loss. Unfortunately, a loss is part of the big
picture of trading. No real damage,
other than a little to my ego. Tonight,
the Trade Bias is 0, which means all of the Market Bias Indicators do not
agree. Use the Trade Bias 0 Rule for
entry and exit on Friday.
12/5/07
Today
I entered on the open at 51.20 and accepted a 45¢ gain. Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative, so I
will Short the open unless the gap lower is over 20¢. The Mortgage Index is Positive, so there will
not be a position if there is a gap lower of over 20¢.
12/4/07
Today
the Q’s gapped lower by 42¢, so I did not have a position today. Tonight, the S&P Bias is 0/33 which my
research calls for a contra position.
Tomorrow I will BUY the Open and gaps will not matter.
12/3/07
I
was filled on the open at 51.06 and used a trailing stop to capture a 22¢ per
share profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
Negative. The Mortgage Index is very
Positive. I will short the open unless
the gap lower is over 20¢.
11/30/07
This
was an unusual week! Three days had
large gaps higher and my Mortgage Index was Negative. I do not take a position when this
happens. I only had positions two days
this week, but the annual return was still a very respectable 220%. Tonight, the Trade Bias is 0. I will use the Trade Bias 0 rules to enter on
Monday!
11/29/07
I
entered at the open at 51.27 and took a 28¢ per share profit using a 15¢
trailing stop. Tonight, the Trade Bias
is POSITIVE as well as everything else except the Mortgage Index. I will buy the open unless there is an upside
gap of 25¢ or more.
11/28/07
Today
the Q’s gapped 67¢ higher and never looked back. I don’t chase a market so there was not a
position again today. I hate markets
like today and yesterday. Each had large
gaps higher and continued to go higher, with very little entrancement. This is not good for my conservative style of
trading and I am not going to change what I do because of the past couple of
days. The bad news is I didn’t have any
positions, so I didn’t make any money; the good news is that I didn’t lose any
money either. My Bias Indicators were
right on, but the risk was way too high to enter the market! Tonight, the Trade Bias is POSITIVE as well
as everything else except the Mortgage Index.
I will buy the open unless there is an upside gap.
11/27/07
Today
the Q’s gapped 42¢ higher and never looked back. I don’t chase a market so there was not a
position today. Tonight, the Trade Bias
is Positive so I will BUY the Open unless it gaps up by over 25¢. The Mortgage Index is Negative.
11/26/07
Today
I was filled at 49.97 and used a trailing stop to capture a 25¢ per share
profit. After that, the market traded
mostly sideways, but had a huge sell-off into the close. Tonight after a 237 point decline in the DOW,
I would have expected a NEGATIVE signal, but the Trade Bias is Positive by a
good margin and calls for a BUY on the Open. I will buy the open unless it gaps by over
25¢.
11/23/07
The
Q’s opened 35¢ higher, which is too large of a gap for entry. The Mortgage Index is negative so it was a
pass for the trading day. This was a
holiday shortened week, but the annual return was still a respectable
199%! The Trade Bias is Positive tonight
so I will BUY the Open, of course by the rules.
11/21/07
The
Q’s opened 45¢ lower, which is too large of a gap for entry. The Mortgage Index is negative so I waited
for the market to come back to the prior day’s close to enter the
position. I got filled at 49.90 and the
profit was 50¢ per share. The Q’s have
had a 10% correction this month and the August lows were taken out. This is not good for the bulls, but it
occurred on very light holiday volume. Tonight, all Bias indicators are
negative, T5118, TRIN and VIX are negative and the Mortgage Index is
negative. My research and rules call for
a contra position, so I will buy on the open on Friday.
11/20/07
Today
was a very wild trading day! From high
to low there was a 185 point swing in the Q’s.
I entered short on the open at 49.95 and accepted a 20¢ per share loss
shortly thereafter. The Bias indicators
were correct, but I will not risk 75¢ to see what will develop. I place the stop and this time I took a small
loss. My trading is unemotional, so it
either works or it doesn’t. Today it
didn’t, but there is another day tomorrow and I’m ready! Tonight, the Trade Bias is Negative so I will
short the Q’s on the OPEN.
11/19/07
I
entered Long at the open and took a quick 18¢ per share early in the trading
day. Good thing because the market took
a dump after that. Tonight the Trade
Bias is NEGATIVE and I will short the open if it does not gap down over
20¢! The Mortgage Index is Positive so
if the gap is over 20¢ lower, there will be no position.
11/16/07
I
entered shortly after the open when the Q’s pulled back to yesterday’s close of
49.82. They rallied 28¢, but there was
not any carry through so I exited at breakeven.
For the week, I was right on target with a 307% annual return. Tonight, the S&P 0 Rule (0/41) is the
position. The Mortgage Index is Long so
the entry will be LONG on the OPEN, regardless of gap or gap direction.
11/15/07
I
entered at 50.00 on the open. There was a
rally to 50.39 and used the 10¢ trailing stop to capture a 29¢ per share profit
early in the trading day. Tonight, the
Trade Bias is Positive so I will get Long on the Open.
11/14/07
Once
again the Q’s gapped 65¢ higher this morning and I never chase a market. I always wait for the market to come back
towards the prior days close and the Mortgage Index to agree with the
position. Today the Mortgage Index is
calling for a Long Position, so I waited to enter at yesterday’s closing
price. I was filled at 50.75 and my 15¢
trailing stop exited the position at 51.00, for a 25¢ per share profit. Tonight, the S&P 0 Rule (41/0) is the
position. The Mortgage Index is Long so
the entry will be LONG on the OPEN, regardless of gap or gap direction.
11/13/07
The
Q’s gapped 73¢ higher this morning. I
never chase a market. I always wait for
the market to come back towards the prior days close and the Mortgage Index to
agree with the position. My Bias
indicators are calling for a Long and the Mortgage Index is showing a
Short. Given this contradiction, there
is NO position today. Tonight, the Trade
Bias is POSITIVE so I will BUY the OPEN, by the rules.
11/12/07
The
Q’s were a wild ride today. I went short
on the open and pick up 20¢ per share very early in the trading day. Not pretty but a profit! After the exit, the Q’s got to 49.93, but at
the close was 1.20 lower than the open.
A very nice profit was missed, but the risk was way too high to
trade. A small profit with a small risk
was the way to trade today. Tonight the
Trade Bias is POSITIVE so the open will be bought.
11/9/07
The
Q’s had a large gap lower on the open so the 0 Rule calls for a long
position. This did not work today and I
accepted a 25¢ per share loss. I had a
pretty good week as my return was 337% on an annual basis. The markets on the other hand saw a steep
decline and there would be considerable pain if you held a long position! Some are saying that this is just a
correction and others are saying that this is just a start with lots more
declines coming. It’s anybody guess and
is one of the many reasons that it is wise to be a short term trader. Tonight, the Trade Bias is 0 so I will buy or
sell depending upon the OPEN (follow the rules).
11/8/07
I
bought at 53.14 on the open and the price went to 53.33 before it fell. I NEVER LET A PROFIT BECOME A LOSS, so I
exited at breakeven. The market is
oversold, but can get much more oversold before it turns higher. Today is such an example as the Q’s closed
173 points lower! Regardless, I don’t
fight the tape! When the market does not
perform as my bias indicators indicated, I want and get out of the market,
ASAP! Tonight, the Trade Bias is 0 so I
will buy or sell depending upon the OPEN (follow the rules).
11/7/07
I
bought on the open at 54.22 and took profits at 54.43, which is a 15¢ per share
pull back from the high. This happened
within the first 45 minutes of the trading day.
The profit was 21¢ per share for the day. All of the markets were considerably lower at
the close. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
POSITIVE so I will BUY on the OPEN, by the rules.
11/6/07
The
Q’s opened sharply higher this morning, so by the rules I entered with the
direction that the Mortgage Index indicated.
I got short at 54.34 and exited at 53.88, for a 46¢ per share
profit. Tonight, the Trade Bias is
POSITIVE so the open will be bought.
11/5/07
The
Q’s opened sharply lower this morning.
My indicators and research called for a Long position, so I bought at
53.86 on the OPEN. I took a 39¢ per
share profit about 90 minutes into the trading session. Tonight, All Bias, T2118, TRIN, VIX and the
Mortgage Index are NEGATIVE. When this
occurs the entry is contra to the signals, so I will BUY the OPEN. Read the rules for this trade, as a large gap
changes the trade!
11/2/07
I
went short at 54.42 on the open. About
9:05 I took a 61¢ per share profit. This
week was interesting as it looked as if it wasn’t going to meet my long term
averages. Three days were exited at
breakeven and on Wednesday there was only a 17¢ profit. For the week, the return was 324% on an
annual basis, which is very consistent with the long term results. Tonight, All Bias, T2118, TRIN, VIX and the
Mortgage Index are NEGATIVE. When this
occurs the entry is contra to the signals, so I will BUY the OPEN. Read the rules for this trade, as a large gap
changes the trade!
11/1/07
I
entered Long at 54.68 at the open.
Shortly later when there was no follow through and I exited at breakeven. Tonight, the Trade Bias is NEDATIVE so I will
sell on the Open by the rules.
10/31/07
I
entered at 54.47 long on the open. I do
not like to have a position during a FOC announcement so I exited about 11:30
at 54.64 for a 17¢ per share profit. FOC
lowered interest rates by .25% and fueled the market to a much higher
close. It is a 50/50 call on what the
Fed might do, so it is best just to watch as the risk is way too high! Tonight, the Trade Bias is POSITIVE so I will
BUY the open. Watch gaps over 25¢ higher
and wait to buy (see rules).
10/30/07
I
entered Long at 53.94 on the open. There
was about a 20¢ per share profit, but it did not continue. The exit was at breakeven. I was correct the market during the day, but
when there is not follow through, I NEVER let a profit become a loss. Tonight, Trade Bias is Positive so it is a
BUY on the OPEN, by the rules.
10/29/07
I
entered LONG at 54.19 on the open. I got
a dime profit, but there was no follow through so the exit was at breakeven for
no profit or no loss on the day.
Tonight, My Favorites is a draw at 1/1, but the Trade Bias is POSITIVE
so the Open will be bought. Watch gaps
to buy on the open!
10/26/07
I
picked up 47¢ per share before the market headed higher. For the week it was a whopping 728%
Annual
return! Tonight the Trade Bias is
POSITIVE so I will BUY the OPEN unless it gaps open 25¢ or more. Mortgage Index is NEGATIVE so if there is a
large gap higher, I will sit the day out.
10/25/07
So
far this week, I had a great day on Monday, but my signals on Tuesday and
Wednesday were wrong! For all of the
days money management was the difference between success and failure. Even though my signals called for a wrong
position on Tuesday and Wednesday my money management tools kept the losses to
0 (zero). Understanding my basic money
management strategy is the secret to successful trading and investing! Today I picked up 48¢ per share, with a
textbook trade and was out around 9 AM.
Tonight, the S&P 0 rule is 45/0, which means I will sell the open
tomorrow.
10/24/07
It
was a wild day! The market gapped lower
which should have been a good long entry point.
I entered long on the open at 53.75.
I had a profit of 19¢ per share and it eroded away. The market did not get to a level where a
trailing stop would be placed, so the trade was exited at breakeven about 9:05
AM when there was no follow through to the upside. At one point the Q’s were down about 150
points, but closed a little higher than the open, but lower on the day. Tonight, the S&P 0 rule applies. Sell the OPEN.
10/23/07
I
sold on the open at 53.61 and was stopped out 15 minutes later at 53.61 for a
breakeven trade. Tonight, the Trade Bias
is POSITIVE so I will buy the open.
After hours the market was sharply lower on earnings news, so this
should be a good entry point.
10/22/07
I
bought on the open at 52.15. There was
light volume and took a profit of 79¢ per share at 52.94. Tonight the Trade Bias is 0, so I am copying
the rule so there is no mistake. It is as follows:
If Trading Bias is 0 and the Q’s gap
higher by over 15¢ --- SELL the open, but if the Q’s gap lower by over 15¢ ---
BUY the open! If the gap is 15¢ or less
higher --- BUY the open, but if the gap is 15¢ or less lower --- SELL the
open. A 20¢ stop loss is used if the
position is not profitable and also use the volume stops below. If profitable, with good volume, use a profit
goal of 35¢ to 40¢, with a 10¢ trailing stop to capture the profit.
10/19/07
This
was a highly unusual straight down day, with good volume and very little
buying. From the get-go the market moved
lower and the DOW closed 367 points lower.
I got long on the open and it when lower right away. My rules call for a 20¢ stop loss when this
occurs. I took a 20¢ loss and
watched. This was a terrible day and is
why stops are used. When the market does
not move in the expected direction, get the hell out! For the week I was up 57¢ per share, which on
an annual basis was 237%. This is off the
average, but the past two days have not been normal trading days. Tonight, my indicators look the same tonight
as they did last night and the Trade Bias is POSITIVE again. I will BUY the OPEN on Monday.
10/18/07
I
got long at 53.33 and exited at 53.33 a half hour later. It was a breakeven day. Tonight, the Trade Bias is POSITIVE so I will
BUY the OPEN.
10/17/07
The
Q’s gapped higher by over 70¢ per share on the open. While the contra signals would like to be
long today, I never chase a market. I
want to buy this closer to yesterdays close, but this gap is too large to
buy. When a gap of this size occurs, the
entry position is in the direction of the Bias Indicators and the Mortgage
Index. I went short on this huge gap
open higher at 53.63. The 15¢ trailing
stop was used to capture a 13¢ per share profit. There was much more profit later, but the
trading and money management plan are always followed. 13¢ is still $520.00, which is OK. Also this is the third day in a row that has
been profitable. Tonight, everything is
NEGATIVE, just like last night, so Long unless a big gap higher.
10/16/07
I
entered long at 52.79 on the open and was stopped out with a trailing stop at
52.93 by 10:15AM. This was a 14¢ per
share profit. Before noon some strength
came in, but a $500+ daily profit is not bad.
The close was 52.87 after considerable up and down movement all
day. Tonight, all of the Market Bias Indicators
are NEGATIVE; T2118, TRIN and VIX are NEGATIVE; and the Mortgage Index is
NEGATIVE. With these NEGATIVE, this
makes the Trade Bias POSITIVE as a contra trade so I will BUY on the open
tomorrow, by the rules. Large gaps up
will call for a SHORT.
10/15/07
I
entered short on the open at 53.61.
Exited about at 10:30 at 53.11 after there was a 60¢ per share profit
with a 10¢ trailing stop. This was a 50¢
per share profit. Tonight, all of the
Market Bias Indicators are NEGATIVE, which makes the Trade Bias POSITIVE as a
contra trade; T2118, TRIN and VIX are NEGATIVE; and the Mortgage Index is
NEGATIVE. With these NEGATIVE I will BUY
on the open tomorrow, by the rules.
10/12/07
I
entered short at 52.90 this morning. The
market continued higher and I exited at 53.25 for a 35¢ loss. This was not a good week considering there were
three unprofitable days, one breakeven day and only one day of profits. While this doesn’t seem very good, for the
week there was still a 312% gain on an annual basis. This is a little less than what it has been,
but still pretty good! Tonight, the Trade
Bias is NEGATIVE so I will SELL the open.
10/11/07
I
entered SHORT at 53.79 and the Q’s had a rally to 53.94. About 2 PM there was a sell-off! I ended up taking profits at 52.75 for a gain
of 1.04 per share. EXCELLENT DAY! Tonight, the Trade Bias is NEGATIVE so I will
SELL the open, by the rules of course.
10/10/07
I
entered Long on the open. The market
traded on both sides of this entry point the first couple of hours. As there was no clear direction the breakeven
stop was used. I exited with a 2¢
loss. The market picked up some strength
into the close so I would have made a little, but that is hindsight. Tonight, the Trade Bias is NEGATIVE so I will
SELL the market on the open.
10/09
Today
I picked up 8¢ per share. It was a very
low volume day. Tonight, the Trade Bias
is 0 so the Trade Bias 0 Rule will be used once again.
10/08
Today
was a breakeven day. The Q’s opened a
penny lower so I sold at 52.80. They
went to 52.99 and then there was a 9¢ profit.
This didn’t continue lower or hold and the market was exited at the
entry price. It was a see-saw day and
when there is no follow through it is best to be out of the market. Tonight, Trade Bias is 0 so the Trade Bias 0
Rule will be used.
10/05
Today
was a breakeven day. The Q’s gapped
higher so I sold on the open. I had
about 11¢ per share profit, but it quickly eroded. NEVER LET A PROFIT BECOME A LOSS! It was a good trading week as I picked up
about $3,800 on my $50,000 investment.
Tonight, the Trade Bias is 0 and the Trade Bias 0 entry and exit rules
are to be used on Monday.
10/04
I
picked up 26¢ on the contra move today.
In all frankness, I just about miss this position call last night when I
was doing my update. Everything was
POSITIVE, so my rules call for a contra position. I know this well, but it didn’t register
right away. It is rather rare for all
indicators to be one direction, but I caught it and was able to pick up a
profit. Tonight, Trade Bias is
NEGATIVE! The Jobs report is out 1 hour
prior to the open. Expected is
+100K. With Trade Bias NEGATIVE I will
want to get SHORT the Q’s. If this
number is much higher or much lower expect a huge gap one way or the other. Large gap higher SELL. On a Large gap lower, WAIT until the price
gets within 5 or 6¢ from today’s close to SELL!
10/03
There
was a small 14¢ per share loss today even though there was a 20¢ profit early
in the day. My breakeven stop didn’t get
placed in time and filled and I do not use a trailing stop until a profit
target is reached. Today this didn’t
work, so there was a small loss!
Tonight, Trade Bias is POSITIVE, the Mortgage Index is POSITIVE so is
T2118, TRIN and VIX so I will SELL the OPEN.
10/02
I
picked up 22¢ per share today on the contra trend position (see yesterday and
the trading rules). Tonight, the Trade
Bias is POSITIVE, so I will BUY the OPEN, by the rules!
10/1/07
I
got filled at 51.45 this morning and used the trailing stop to exit at
52.06. I picked up 61¢ in what I
consider a “textbook trade”. The day and
month have started out very well!
Tonight, everything including Trade Bias is POSITIVE. Research has shown that when this occurs the
market is overdone and is going to head the other way, so I will SELL the OPEN
tomorrow morning.
09/28/07
Volume
was below the average again today. I
took a 14¢ per share profit about 11:30 AM.
Please read the September 2007 results that are posted above. I’ve had better months, but this was still a
very profitable month and is in-line with my averages. Tonight, the Trade Bias is POSITIVE, so I
will BUY the OPEN, of course by the rules.
09/27/07
Volume
was very light today. This low volume
caused a 10¢ trailing stop and the market was exited about 10 AM with a 16¢ per
share profit. Tonight, one of the Bias
Groups does not agree, so the Trade Bias 0 Rule will be used tomorrow. I am copying the rule so there is no mistake.
It is as follows:
If Trading Bias is 0 and the Q’s gap
higher by over 15¢ --- SELL the open, but if the Q’s gap lower by over 15¢ ---
BUY the open! If the gap is 15¢ or less
higher --- BUY the open, but if the gap is 15¢ or less lower --- SELL the
open. A 20¢ stop loss is used if the
position is not profitable and also use the volume stops below. If profitable, with good volume, use a profit
goal of 35¢ to 40¢, with a 10¢ trailing stop to capture the profit.
09/26/07
Today
was a so, so market. I never got enough
profit to set a trailing stop and never got a move enough to be stopped out
with a small loss. I ended up with a
small 13¢ gain. Tonight, the Trade Bias
is NEGATIVE and I will SHORT the open.
09/25/07
Today
I picked up 32¢ per share by following the time tested rules for entry and
exit. Tonight the S&P Bias is 0/38,
so the S&P 0 Rule applies. This is
like a broken record, but read the Bias rules for entry and exit instructions.
09/24/07
The
Q’s gapped up 13¢ on the open. I was
filled at 50.49 and within the hour I picked up 37¢ a share. Tonight, I have a 0/62 for the S&P Bias
and the Mortgage Index is POSITIVE. The
Trade Bias is 0 so I will enter on Monday, by the Trade Bias 0 Rule (see Bias
Trade Rules).
09/21/07
I
picked up 36¢ per share today. For the
week the gain was 71¢, which was an annual return of 295%! This Week wasn’t as good as I had hoped, but
the annual return was still exceptional!
Tonight, the S&P Bias is 0/23, so I want to trade the direction of
the Mortgage Index, which is POSITIVE.
The Trade Bias is 0 so I will enter on Monday, by the Trade Bias 0 Rule
(see Bias Trade Rules).
09/20/07
The
Q’s gapped lower on the open so I entered Long at 50.06. The highest that it got was 50.26. which is
not the minimum (35¢) to trigger a trailing stop. Volume was above the average. Using the established rules, I exited about
75 minutes prior to the close. I picked
up a small 6¢ profit. Yesterday I said
my gut said lower today. This position
would have lost money today and is why I ALWAYS trade the Bias. Tonight, Trade Bias is POSITIVE, so I will
BUY on the OPEN, by the rules!
09/19/07
The
Q’s gapped higher by 25¢ and got filled at 50.10 about 10 AM. Our trailing stop was hit at 50.44, so I
picked up 34¢ per share (4,000 shares = $1,360). The Fed move yesterday is positive for the
market, but markets will always go up and down.
Tonight, Trade Bias is POSITIVE.
The S&P Bias is 10/0 so the contra rule does not apply. BUY by the rules tomorrow. I am NOT going to buy any gap higher, but
will if it gaps lower. My gut tells me
to expect a lower market tomorrow, but I trade the Bias!
09/18/07
The
market was poised to open lower, but a couple of earnings reports Ire much
better than expected and the Q’s gapped 30¢ higher. By the rules, I waited for 30 minutes to go
Long and Ire filled at 48.90. Volume was
above the average and the Mortgage Index was POSITIVE. I picked up a small 15¢ per share profit,
following the trading rules! I have been
doing this a long time and the only time I have serious market concerns is when
the FOMC is going to announce the new rates.
There is just too much risk to be in the market when this is happening,
so I am glad the long standing rules got me to the sidelines. This time they surprised almost everyone and
have almost for certain put the recession fears on hold. The huge upside move today will more than likely
retreat some, but what was done was needed.
Tonight, the Trade Bias is POSITIVE, so BUY the open, by the rules!
09/17/07
Volume
was extremely light today. Due to light
volume, the stops are narrowed and I had a small loss. Tomorrow is Fed Day, so volume will be light
until after the announcement. Tonight,
Trade Bias is POSITIVE. I will BUY the
open, by the rules.
09/14/07
Today
was a 38¢ profit day! For the Week,
there Ire three winners and two losers.
Based upon an investment of $50,000, the profit for the Week was
$3,720! This is a little less than
normal, but still a pretty good Week.
This is still over a 350% annual return!
Tonight, Trade Bias is POSITIVE so I will BUY the open on Monday.
09/13/07
I
picked up 24¢ today. Tonight, the
S&P 0 rule happen, which makes Trade Bias 0. I am copying the rule so there is no mistake.
It is as follows:
If Trading Bias is 0 and the Q’s gap
higher by over 15¢ --- SELL the open, but if the Q’s gap lower by over 15¢ ---
BUY the open! If the gap is 15¢ or less
higher --- BUY the open, but if the gap is 15¢ or less lower --- SELL the
open. A 20¢ stop loss is used if the
position is not profitable and also use the volume stops below. If profitable, with good volume, use a profit
goal of 35¢ to 40¢, with a 10¢ trailing stop to capture the profit.
09/12/07
Our
20¢ stop loss was hit, so I must accept a small loss and move on. Let’s see, almost $80 oil, a credit crunch,
sub-prime losses, housing and mortgages in turmoil and the Bias indicators are
all pointing to a lower market. Ill, it
doesn’t matter! The market does what it
wants! Volume has been above average the
past two days as
09/11/07
I
got a gap higher and sold. The Q’s moved
higher and hit our 20¢ stop loss.
Tonight, the Trade Bias is NEGATIVE, so I will SELL on the OPEN, by the
rules.
09/10/07
The
Q’s gapped higher on the open, so I SOLD the OPEN and picked up 71¢. Tonight, the S&P 0 Rule makes Trade Bias
POSITIVE. I will BUY if the Q’s gap
lower on the open or SELL if the Q’s gap higher on the open.
09/07/07
The
Q’s gapped 61¢ lower on the open today.
I do not chase the market and anything over a 20¢ gap lower is a pass
until I can enter at or about yesterdays close.
The reason is that ALL of my research has shown that the risk is too
high for a profitable trade, when selling gap lower openings over 20¢. Today it would have been OK, but a 250 point
move in the DOW is highly unusual. To
keep things in perspective, there were “no positions” on Wednesday and
Thursday, today no position due to the huge gap lower and only a position on
Tuesday of this holiday shortened Week.
I was out of the market a lot this Week, but on an annual basis, the
return was still over 200%! I don’t know
of anywhere that this yield is available, with very low risk! Tonight, the S&P 0 Rule makes Trade Bias
POSITIVE. I will BUY if the Q’s gap open
lower or SELL if the Q’s gap open higher.
09/06/07
I
picked up 31¢ today. Tonight, the Trade Bias
is NEGATIVE so I will SHORT on the open, by the rules of course!
09/05/07
I
had a small loss of 20¢ today. Tonight,
the Market Bias indicators DO NOT agree so I will BUY if the Q’s gap open lower
or SELL if the Q’s gap open higher.
09/04/07
Volume
was light once again, but I got a positive run today and took 57¢ per share
profit. Once the profit gets to 60¢ per
share a 10¢ trailing stop was used to capture the profit, but this trailing
stop will still let profits run, if the move continues. This trailing stop does take a good profit
before it erodes. I could have gotten
more profit by the close, but ALWAYS TAKE A GOOD PROFIT WHEN IT IS THERE! Tonight, 2 of the Market Bias indicators have
a 0 in the negative column, but the Trade Bias is POSITIVE so I will BUY the
OPEN tomorrow!
08/31/07
Please
view the above August 2007 Results and Comments. It was a GOOD month! Today volume was below the average in the
first hour so the stops are narrowed and a 15 cent profit was earned by
10:30. It appears that the politicians
aren’t going to let the credit issues derail our economy and the market rallied
to the resistance and sold off a little into the close. I’m not going to try to predict where the
market is headed next month, but the Market Bias Indicators will keep us on the
right track! Tonight, everything
including Trade Bias is POSITIVE, so I will BUY the OPEN on Tuesday (by the
rules).
08/30/07
Good
volume returned today! I took a 77 cent
profit about 10:30 and relaxed the rest of the day! Tonight, the Trade Bias is NEGATIVE, so SHORT
on the open, by the rules. Monthly
report tomorrow night’s update.
08/29/07
A
huge up day! I love volatility and hate
low volume. The last two days I have had
both and I can’t remember when I have had two loosing days in a row. I’m sure it has been several years, because I
don’t forget things like that! Light
volume distorts the accuracy of the bias indicators! Wild swings occur on light volume, because
there just aren’t enough players in the market.
Around holidays is when this usually occurs. Markets like today and yesterday had some of
the lightest volume I’ve seen. Tonight,
all bias indicators are NEGATIVE and the S&P 0 rule is in play. I will BUY the OPEN (by the rules of course).
08/28/07
A
huge down day! The Q’s Ire at there 50
day moving average and the S&P 0 rule caused a LONG. I Ire stopped out rather soon, even if the
market opened 26 points lower. I always
use a 20 cent stop on the S&P 0 rule and that’s what happened. Just as the market was ready to open, it was
announced that
08/27/07
I
picked up 18 cents a share today. No
real movement one way or the other.
Tonight, all Bias indicators are NEGATIVE and the S&P is 0/25, which
is overdone to the downside. The S&P
0 (zero) rule calls for a LONG on the open (by the rules). The last time this rule was a wash, but the 5
prior times it made good money. I have
to go with the rule and BUY on the OPEN!
08/24/07
Last
Week was one of the highest profit Weeks I’ve ever had and this Week was the
biggest nothing Week I’ve ever had; I was out of the market for 4 days and
stopped out at breakeven the other. Some
say I should have been long, but my Market Bias indicators told me that it was
way too risky. Hind sight is always
20/20, but it was too risky to be long for my conservative investing! I would feel better about the upside, if I
had a test of the recent lows, which almost always happens, but everyone is
expecting this, so it probably won’t happen this time. Most people that I talked with in the past 10
days are sure a recession is right around the corner. I trade what the Market Bias indicators and
what the markets are telling, so I don’t really care if there is one or not for
my trading and investing. I do have an
opinion, so here it is: I have felt that
there was a very high likelihood that things would get tough, but I are in the
third year of the Presidential Cycle (read this
old article on it) and it is highly unlikely that a recession will occur
this or next year until after the election.
A recession means financial pain for the voters, which means the
Republicans will be thrown out of office.
They (really both Parties) don’t want this and will do whatever it takes
to stay in control. They still may lose
in the end, but they are not going to let the tax base go down very far or
voters being financially upset prior to the election. Most people still vote their pocketbook! This is most likely just a correction! Markets are going to go up and go down! They will be very volatile markets for the
near future and when it is all said and done, most likely won’t be much
different than they are right now. I am looking
forward to this and see major profits coming.
Enough Said!
Tonight,
the Trade Bias is NEGATIVE so SHORT on the OPEN (by the rules).
08/23/07
A
nothing day! Tonight, My Favorite Bias
is 1/0 and all the rest are negative. When
this occurs I look at the T2118, TRIN and VIX indicators and they are 2/1 on
the Positive side. Therefore, I will
have NO POSITION for tomorrow.
08/22/07
Our
SHORT position was filled on a higher open this morning. The market didn’t do much for a couple of
hours and sold-off. I had a little over
a 10¢ profit and when it didn’t hold, I exited at breakeven. The S&P 0 rule is contra-trend trading
and my research has shown it to be extremely accurate. This time it was a wash. As you Ill know, I’ve been doing this for
some time and there is almost ALWAYS a test of the lows when there is a sharp
sell-off like last Week. It is very
unusual to have such a sharp V bottom and then head up, up and away. I don’t factor this into my trading, but it
is something to remember. Tonight, the
Bias indicators are 3 long and 2 short, so the Trade Bias is MIXED and there
are NO Positions on Thursday.
08/21/07
I
spent lots of time today trying to understand why all of the Market Bias
Indicators did not show any TRUES in the NEGATIVE column last night. After lots of work I discovered that my data
was corrupt (NOT A GOOD THING). My
laptop shoId that it was correct to “Have No Positions”. Tonight, the S&P 0 Rule is in place, so I
will SHORT on the OPEN (By the Rules).
08/20/07
The
market did little today, so I didn’t miss anything! I have been doing this a long time and
tonight all of the market bias indicators have 0 in the NEGATIVE column. I have never seen that before! All NEGATIVE and not one True anywhere. Sit this out is probably the best move for
tomorrow. When something like this
occurs, it is not safe to be in the market.
08/17/07
I
got a big upside move on the open so the trade was entered. (See yesterday) Another very profitable
day! 49 cents per share profit! For the Week, I had good profits everyday of
the Week. On a $50,000 member share, the
net was a little over $9,000 for the Week.
I’m not going to calculate the return, but for the Week it was better
than the annual return for many of the so called experts! The Trade Bias is the secret as when it is
Positive, I get Long and when it is Negative, I get Short! Simple and Easy!!!! Tonight, the TRADE BIAS is MIXED, so I will
have NO POSITIONS on Monday. “My
Favorites” are 0/1, which makes them slightly negative, but this is so close,
the Mortgage Index is POSITIVE (it is now posting in the “Files” Section) and
the T2118, TRIN and VIX indicators are mixed!
All in all no position is warranted!
08/16/07
What
a day! The DOW moved 150 points every 15
minutes. At one time it was down 340
points and ended up closing just a little lower. I Ire not filled on the open because the Q’s
gapped lower by 39 points (please understand the rules), but within a half hour
I Ire filled at yesterdays close. I
picked up .60 per share, so it was a very profitable day. From my technical background, I may have seen
the worse of this sell-off, but there are usually several tests of the lows and
the markets are off 10% already. The
market is very oversold so I can expect some up days and probably more down
days. Trading Bias will tell us when
this will be! Tonight, the Trading Bias
is NEGATIVE so I will SHORT on a higher open.
(Personal Comment: I expect an upside pop in the morning. BE CAREFUL!
I have had an extremely profitable Week so caution is advised) I will be traveling Friday to Sunday, so
this will not be updated until late Sunday night.
08/15/07
Volatility
returned in a big way today! I picked up
39 cents per share, so it was a pretty good day. Tonight, everything is NEGATIVE across the
board, so I will short (by the rules) on the open.
08/14/07
What
a great day! I picked up 60 cents! Tonight, the Trade Bias is NEGATIVE, so I
will short the market (by the rules) on the open.
08/13/07
I
had a 5 cent loss a share gain today going against the trend. Tonight all bias indicators are NEGATIVE, so
I will SHORT the market on the open, by the rules.
08/10/07
I
don’t want to appear as a broken record, but it was another volatile day. In fact, there have been triple digit moves
11 days of the past 15 trading days… HIGHLY UNUSUAL! This morning the Q’s open over 50 points
lower, Int another 40 points lower, a short time later was 12 points higher
than yesterdays close, a little later was down 50 points, worked its way up
some and closed 43 points lower. What a
ride! This kind of movement is way too
much for any conservative investor, including me! This past Week has been very unusual for me
as the Trading Bias called for “NO POSITIONS” 3 days! This was very good! I like to be in the market, but the risk was
way too high for conservative investing.
It was, hoIver, a pretty good Week, considering all the volatility, as I
had two very profitable trades and no losses.
Tonight, the Trade Bias is POSITIVE, due to the 0 S&P Rule. I will buy the open (see entry rules).
08/09/07
One
more VERY VOLATILE DAY!!! I got filled
at a much lower opening and rode it up and took a 68 cent per share profit, which
was a very nice profit (On my 4,000 shares it was $2,720). The market then crashed to close 380 some
points lower! Tonight the Bias
indicators are very mixed, so there will be no positions tomorrow. I expect a reaction up sometime tomorrow, but
it is too risky to trade.
08/08/07
Another
very volatile day! A little money could
have been made either long or short, but the risks Ire very, very HIGH and
money could have been lost with either position. The bias indicators kept us out of all that
nonsense! Tonight, the Trading Bias is
POSITIVE, so I will enter Long on the OPEN (by the rules).
08/07/07
Another
volatile day. I watched today and will
tomorrow, as the bias indicators do not signal a position.
08/06/07
A
VERY volatile day! I Ire able to get a
small 19 cent gain before the market made a major upside move the last couple
of hours. Be sure you read and
understand the Short Term Bias Trading Rules.
This is located here. Tonight, the bias indicators are mixed, so
there are no positions tomorrow.
08/03/07
Got
a 30 cent profit early in the day and watched a mostly sideways day until the
last hour when a huge sell-off happen.
On Monday, BUY the open. All Bias
indicators are positive tonight!
08/02/07
I
Ire stopped out early today for a small loss.
Tonight the S&P Bias is 40/0, so by my research the Q’s are a SELL
on the open.
08/01/07
Another
wild day, but a 32 cent profit per share was had! All Bias indicators are POSITIVE and the
S&P Bias is 67/0. By the rules and
my research, the Q’s will be sold on the open (of course by the rules).
07/31/07
Ill,
the market gapped up big time on the open.
I felt that there would be an upside move, but it was way too risky to
trade. The trading plan would not have
entered long because of this gap, even if the trading bias indicator was
positive! The market closed much lower! A VERY VOLITILE MARKET! Tonight the Trading Bias is POSITIVE so I
will BUY the OPEN by the established rules.
07/30/07
Trading
Bias is very mixed tonight, so there are no positions tomorrow. Things are pointing to too much risk to
enter! My sector tally is 2/211 and I’ve
never seen this high of a negative reading, which means the market is getting
very oversold and an upside reaction is very near!
07/27/07
I
would love to BUY the market on Monday, but there is not positive agreement in
the Bias Indicators so there will be NO POSITION!
07/26/07
Another
GREAT Day, if you are following the established trading guidelines! Tonight all the bias indicators are
negative! I will sell on the open,
unless there is a 20 cent gap lower (read my entry rules). I think this market is getting very over
sold! The sectors Ire 199 negative and 3
positive. In 30+ years of investing,
I’ve never seen this type of imbalance.
Be careful and be very risk aware!
07/25/07
Good
day! Trading Bias is NEGATIVE so SHORT
on the open.
07/24/07
Big
move down today. Trading Bias is calling
for a SHORT tomorrow. I’m not too
comfortable with this, but will go with the signal. Trading Bias is returning
07/23/07
Got
max. profit again today. Bias indicators
are mixed so Trading Bias call for NO POSITION tomorrow.
07/20/07
Took
maximum profit today. All bias
indicators are NEGATIVE so sell on the open.
07/19/07
Stopped
out at B/E today. Everything is NEGATIVE
tonight so SELL on the open.
07/18/07
It
was a wild day and I’m sure glad my indicators kept me on the sidelines! Tonight all bias indicators are NEGATIVE so
SHORT on the open.
07/17/07
Great
day! Tonight My Bias is mixed and the
rest are NEGATIVE. By the rules there is
no positions tomorrow. As an added note,
after hours Bear Stearns said their sub-prime portfolio was “worthless”. I’m glad the indicators do not call for a
position! I expect a lower opening
tomorrow and a wild ride.
07/16/07
Small
5 cent loss today. Tonight the trade
bias is POSITIVE so LONG on the OPEN.
07/13/07
Tonight
the trade bias indicator is POSITIVE, so I will enter short-term positions LONG
on the open on Monday.
07/12/07
A
huge positive day! I took maximum
profits and watched! Tonight all bias
indicators are NEGATIVE, SHORT for short-term trading (by the rules) at the
open.
07/11/07
S&P
Bias is 0/29 and by the rules, a LONG for short-term position for tomorrow.
07/10/07
Big
sell off today. Bias is mixed, which
calls for no short-term positions tomorrow.
07/09/07
I
entered the market on the open, but was stopped out at b/e by 10 AM. Tonight is a very mixed affair. My Market Bias is slightly positive so there
will be no positions tomorrow. I expect
a lower market tomorrow, but the risk is too high for a position!
07/06/07
All
Bias indicators turned NEGATIVE tonight.
Considering that it was a very positive day is especially concerning for
any long positions. I will SHORT the Q’s
using the short-term trading rules. In
case you haven’t checked the results for the short-term trading, it is
averaging over a 200% annual return!
07/05/07
My
Bias indicator is a draw tonight so no positions tomorrow. All of the other bias indicators are much
Iaker tonight as
07/03/07
Short
term I picked up 20 cents per share today.
My Bias indicator turned negative (4/7) tonight and the rest are still
positive. No positions on Thursday! Just got back and I have a new grandson!